There are certain buying trends I’ve seen in my time as an auto broker (dating back to 1991). One of the most prominent is that sales typically slow down from late October through mid-December.

This is reflected in recent data from the major auction companies and tracking firms. Auction company Adesa says September prices are down 2% from their peak in August (but still up over September of last year), and CNW Marketing Research says independent used car dealers sales were off 7% (an expected result with the end of Cash for Clunkers).

Prices at Manheim—the world’s largest auction company—were still high in September, though they didn’t trend up like earlier in the year. Experts don’t expect them do stay down, either. There’s still a dearth of ex-rental ‘program’ vehicles, and the expected total of new car sales this year is off 25% or so, which means there are a lot less trade-ins out there.

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