Yesterday the Obama administration signed new regulations targeting the fuel efficiency of the cars, trucks, and SUVs we drive. Most of the details of the new deal were announced last September, but it’s worth revisiting them, and what they’ll mean to all of us.

2016 model cars will have to average 37.8mpg; pickups, SUVs, and minivans 28.8mpg. The weighted ‘fleet average’ for all vehicles will be 35.5mpg (according to the EPA, other agencies rank things differently, adding to the confusion and cost). That’s up from today’s 27.3mpg.

Progress doesn’t come free, of course. Most of the ‘low hanging fruit’ has already been plucked to get us to where we are. Now, we’ll see more expensive engineering solutions to make new cars roughly 30% more efficient. Things like direct injection, 6-speed and twin-clutch gearboxes, active aerodynamics, hybrid and diesel engines, and more use of aluminum and other lightweight materials all have dollar values.

The federal government says the average car will cost consumers $926 more; environmental groups concur. Most everyone in the car business and at independent consulting firms disputes this; their estimates range from $2000 to $8000 more depending on the vehicle, with an average of $3500-4000. Even the EPA says the figure is closer to $1300. If it’s a little four-cylinder car that doesn’t need many technological tweaks, the figure will be on the lower end; pickups and SUVs that need diesel engines to hit the targets will be on the high end.

All these folk have their own interests to protect, so let’s split the difference and say that your new ride circa 2016 will cost $3000 more. Since it will get much better fuel economy—in theory, anyway—you’ll save at the pump. How much, of course, will be based on what the cost of gasoline and diesel is then. If go-juice is averaging $2.50 per gallon, and you drive 15,000 miles per year, you’ll save roughly $316 per annum. If pump prices are $4.00, the savings will be nearer $508.

So: it will take you somewhere between six to ten years to pay for that ‘savings’. If you drive less, it’ll take longer. Note that I’m leaving out the moral issue of potential climate change (which I’ve discussed before); I’m just looking at the financial aspect. The government says you’ll save $3000 over the ‘life of the vehicle’, so I guess we’ll just all need to keep our cars longer—or hope they hold their value well enough to make up for the extra up-front outlay.

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