Double-dip recession? Economists say the chances are slim, despite the drag on the world’s recover caused by the Euro-crisis. But American consumers aren’t so sure; slowing job creating and stock market volatility have had quite an effect on sales in May and June.

New car sales figures for June were up only 14% over a dismal 2009; this caused the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAARs) to drop from May’s 11.8 million units to 11.1. Last year’s was only 10.4 million, a far cry from the 16-17 million new cars, trucks, and SUVs sold before the recession.

Winners were Chrysler, up 35% from its 2009 B/K levels, and big pickups, which were up 26% over last year. China continues to go great guns, helping companies like GM remain profitable.

But that doesn’t mean much for the average American; data from the independent Conference Board shows almost a 10-point drop in consumer confidence from May to June—though it’s still above winter’s levels. Other independent surveys show that three quarters of US consumers think we’re in for a double-dip recession. Statistically, most economic recoveries suffer a pause somewhere around 12 months in, which correlates with what people are feeling.

Neither manufacturers or supplies are overly worried; so aggressive was their restructuring over the past two years, they can be profitable at the lower sales levels. Most big dealership groups report the same. Not that any of this makes Joe or Jane Lunchbucket feel better…

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